Masks are once again recommended when indoors in eight of 16 counties as hospitalizations climb and Maine records the highest COVID infection rate in the nation.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its county-level assessments late Thursday and designated Cumberland County, the midcoast region and most of northern Maine as having high community levels of COVID-19 and being at risk of placing a strain on local hospitals. In counties designated as having high levels, the federal agency recommends that everyone wear masks when indoors in public spaces.
What Maine is experiencing is “the war going on between the virus and humans,” said Dr. Michael Osterholm, a specialist in infectious diseases and professor at the University of Minnesota. And the rise in cases and hospitalizations in Maine suggests the virus is winning the current battle here, he said.
The Maine counties designated as having high levels are Cumberland, Sagadahoc, Lincoln, Knox, Hancock, Penobscot, Piscataquis and Aroostook. Seven counties are now designated as having medium levels, which means masks are recommended for people who are older or have underlying medical conditions. Those counties include York, Kennebec, Oxford, Franklin, Somerset, Waldo and Washington. Androscoggin County retained its low-level designation, which means the US CDC does not formally recommend mask wearing.
The community levels are based on the number of new infections reported in the last seven days, new COVID-19 hospital admissions and the percent of staffed inpatient beds in use by COVID-19 patients. A county in the high category is considered to be at risk of straining hospital capacity.
The change in risk assessments follows a steep rise in cases in Maine and the Northeast resulting from the emergence of three omicron subvariants, each of which is more contagious than the omicron strain that caused the record surge of cases over the winter. Maine is experiencing the latest surge a couple of weeks after more populated states in the Northeast.
Osterholm said the virus tries to spread among human hosts and to do that, variants and sub-variants develop. That’s what’s happening in Maine, he said, with subvariants of the omicron variant that caused a spike in cases over the winter.
It’s hard to predict precisely what subvariants will emerge, but easy to predict that new versions of the virus will crop up at some point, said Osterholm, who was a member of the Transition COVID-19 Advisory Board that was appointed by President-elect Joe Biden in November 2020.
“The whole country is far from done with this,” he said, “even though people want to think we are.”
The one bit of good news for Maine in the current wave, Osterholm said, is that a rising level of immunity in the population should keep the latest outbreak from reaching the levels seen in December and January and also limit the number of deaths and severe COVID cases that require hospitalization in intensive care units. The number of severe cases, he said, is not expected to match the peaks reached this past winter.
The number of patients in Maine hospitals with COVID-19 climbed to 203 as of Friday morning, a 50 percent increase from two weeks ago. Of those patients, 35 are intensive care and four are on ventilators.
The state also reported 930 new cases on Friday and 12 additional deaths. The deaths reported by the state are not all within the previous 24 hours. Maine health officials review death certificates and periodically add deaths that were not counted weeks or even months ago.
As of Friday, Maine had reported 421 new cases per 100,000 residents over the previous seven days, nearly three times higher than the national average of 142 cases, according to the US CDC. Maine is followed by Rhode Island, Vermont and New York.
Infections have spiked over the past few weeks in Maine and other Northeast states as new and more contagious versions of the virus spread across the region. The omicron BA.2 subvariant and two closely related subvariants – BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 – now account for 80 percent of the new infections in Maine, according to data released by the state.
Maine infectious disease experts echoed Osterholm’s suggestion that the current outbreak will not be as widespread as the spread of the omicron variant over the winter, but the virus isn’t going to completely disappear.
Suzanne Moreshead, associate vice president of infection prevention for Northern Light Health, said the latest version of the virus is more transmissible but not as severe.
She said Maine is in a transition season and there are still a number of indoor gatherings for communities and families, such as Easter, Mother’s Day and high school graduations. But once summer hits, she said, most people head outside where transmission is more difficult, suggesting that the spread of the virus will wane during warm weather months.
Still, Moreshead said, there’s also a likelihood of another resurgence in the fall, whether gatherings again tend to shift indoors.
COVID “is obviously going to be with us now for the foreseeable future,” she said. “It’s going to wax and wane.”
Laura L. Blaisdell, a Maine pediatrician and infectious disease expert, said public health officials are rightfully happy that 88 percent of Mainers have been vaccinated. But that still leaves about 150,000 Mainers who didn’t get the shots, she said, and “the virus will find you.”
She said the rising number of COVID patients requiring hospitalization in Maine shows how quickly the view of the pandemic can shift.
“We are once again in the unenviable position of having fought well early in the war but (currently) losing the battle in terms of hospitalizations,” Blaisdell said. “We do need to be humble in trying to project what’s going to happen.
The surge in Maine’s COVID cases is consistent around the state, and there is no specific region showing a significantly higher rate of COVID than any other, according to MaineHealth, the parent organization of Maine Medical Center in Portland and seven other Maine hospitals.
With exceptions, there are two major groups of people admitted to hospitals specifically because of COVID, said Dr. Dora Anne Mills, chief health improvement officer for the MaineHealth and former state CDC director. Those are older, vaccinated people and younger, unvaccinated people.
Public health officials including Mills have continued to encourage Maine residents to protect themselves from contracting COVID by masking, getting vaccinated and boosted, choosing to gather outdoors when possible and testing regularly.
This story will be updated.
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